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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.