🔗 Share this article

Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to ignite a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the words were greeted with wild cheering as most of the hall rose in spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He was unaccustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from the prepared script like this was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against the leadership he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance and Settled Issues

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. An early move upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s general election. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, even if survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

A Lid That Rattles on the EU

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. While EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid that has been kept firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by the government. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Internal Pressure and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people allowing young people can move between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly about the “self-evident” benefits of joining a customs union with the EU, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea involves announce the start of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Secondly, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain for entry into a European defense initiative and the subsequent collapse in talks has led UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by the Kremlin, is viewed by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Calculations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to encourage the rise of nationalist movements.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an unreliable partner, ministers is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to keep open the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would stand for the leadership, is among a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk & A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.