🔗 Share this article

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."